Skip to main content

Centre for Policy Studies webinar: 17 May 2022

“The future of rail post COVID-19”

The discussion – held to mark the release of the CPS’ new report Changing Track – was uncontroversial with the panellists largely in agreement on the key issues. The panel covered the future role of Great British Railways, ticketing reform, sustainability in transport and industrial relations.

Industrial relations featured briefly as an aside and Andy Bagnall said that he was “disappointed” with the threat of strikes and argued there was an inescapable need to “manage the change”. No panellists disagreed with his comments.

As conveyed in previous seminars, Andy said that although the industry was expected to recover, there would undoubtedly be long-term changes to travel patterns that they would have to respond to. He stressed the need to get the GBR legislation right to create a “guiding mind not a controlling mind” and argued that GBR needed to allow TOCs the freedom to respond to demand and utilise their “commercial expertise and creativity”. Stephen Hammond MP was supportive of Andy’s comments but went further to criticise GBR as renationalisation. An overview of the webinar can be found below.

Panel:

  • Andy Bagnall, Director General, Rail Delivery Group
  • Stephen Hammond MP, Conservative (Former Rail Minister)
  • Jo Lewington, Chief Environment & Sustainability Officer, Network Rail
  • Champa Magesh, President, Trainline Partner Solutions
  • Tony Lodge, Chair, CPS Research Fellow

 

Post-Covid Recovery / GBR

Stephen Hammond MP argued that the 5-day commuter market was likely “dead” post-covid, and that the Williams-Shapps proposal risked making GBR a “national joke” that needed to prove itself as a nimble operator that could respond to evolving demand patterns.

  • Hammond later said there needed to be incentives for TOCs to operate in the UK and called GBR a “renationalisation” of the railway that risked “deadening” innovation.
  • Andy Bagnall partially agreed with Hammond, saying that franchising delivered as a system when considering passenger numbers, but that it did need changes. Bagnall said he did want to see a range of contracts and hoped that DfT enabled the right balance of revenue risk transfer and commercial flexibility.

Industrial Relations

  • Jo Lewington said Network Rail were going to avoid strike action “at all costs”. 
  • Andy said he was “disappointed” with the threat of strikes and said he hoped the unions would work with the industry to “manage the change”, especially during rail’s “nascent recovery”. He further stated that the level of Government funding was unsustainable for any industry.

Ticketing

  • Tony Lodge (Chair) praised Trainline for their innovative approach and disagreed with the Government’s ticketing plans saying that GBR should not run the system but instead enable a competitive market of platforms to let people access tickets.
  • Bagnall said he wanted an acceleration in the Government’s rollout of expanded pay-as-you-go and hoped for broader concession models in urban areas.
  • Champa Magesh agreed with Bagnall that there needed to be room for the private sector in the ticketing space to make risky investments and technological advances. She argued that the private sector could market in niche areas not accessible to a monolithic body and effectively change consumers’ habits. Magesh pointed to the diversity of ticket retailers in the airline industry as a successful model that could attract a diversity of retailing offers, including packages with accommodation and parking included.
  • Bagnall said the sheer complexity of the ticketing system put off passengers from buying tickets and that changes required the Government to amend fares regulation.

Environmental

  • Lewington said the industry had to be realistic about the cost of wholesale network electrification, pointing to alternatives like hydrogen. Lewington said Network Rail were engaging the industry not only on battery and hydrogen solutions but other emerging green technologies.
  • Mugesh said that the green credentials of rail were being challenged by EV vehicle and charger rollouts and that they had to make the case for a sustainable railway to the consumer.

Accelerate: Rail 2022 – event summary

Keynote: Mapping out an ambitious vision: The Williams-Shapps Plan for Rail

Wendy Norton, Rail Minister, Department for Transport

Keynote summary:

Wendy began her speech by saying that this is an existential moment for our railways and that ensuring the health of our railway would be crucial to helping the country level up, reach net zero and build back better. To make this a reality she said that we need to move away from a model that delivered multiple franchise failures, a timetable collapse and spiralling costs.

On passenger numbers she stressed that our immediate goal must be to get passengers back on seats and to boost revenue, adding that continued funding for the industry is “impractical and wrong”, with the rail having received more money than buses and aviation combined.

Wendy said she was confident that the Williams-Shapps Plan for Rail would get the industry “back to basics”, with GBR as a guiding mind being essential to this. On passenger experience Wendy stated she wanted this to be unrecognisable in five years, with the GBR app being a “one-stop shop” for tickets and the industry giving customers the personal service that they need.

On comments that the industry is nationalised in all but name, Wendy said that the door to nationalisation remained “under lock and key” and that the underlying goal for the industry is simplification. She closed her speech by saying our industry ills are serious, but not yet terminal and that major reform is essential in avoiding a slow and steady decline. She added that we need to focus on reviving our railways, putting them on a long term, sustainable footing, to build the fairer, sustainable service customers need.

Leaders’ Forum: Great British Railways: coming together under the new structure

Andy Bagnall, Director General, Rail Delivery Group

Andrew Haines, Chief Executive, Network Rail

Claire Mann, Managing Director, South Western Railway

John Larkinson, Chief Executive Office, Office of Rail and Road

Phil Whittingham, Managing Director, West Coast Partnership

John Abel, Technical Director, Office of the CTO, Google Cloud

Key themes:

Recovery: Andrew Haines said he was still confident that we can recover passenger numbers, even if new working from home patterns would mean that business travel in particular would be “permanently different”. He added that we should not worry about chasing the ‘high peak’, rather we should think about recovery more holistically. Claire Mann echoed Andrew’s comments, but noted that despite the pandemic, nothing should really have changed, because the customer should have been, and should still be at the heart of all that we do.

The future of GBR: Andy stressed that GBR must be a guiding mind and not a controlling mind that looks outwards to customers and enables operators who know their markets best to deliver. On Passenger Service Contracts, he added that the focus must be on the passenger and freight customers and that GBR must be an intelligent client with operators having the right incentives, flexibilities and levers to respond to a changing environment.

Fares reform: Andy said that the pandemic had put petrol on the fire after years of the industry calling for fares reform. He said while the White Paper pointed in the right direction with regard to fares reform, we still need to flesh out the detail. To really simplify things, he said the industry must go “further and farther” by rewriting the underlying framework for fares.

Technology and innovation: John Abel began his remarks by saying that our number one priority should be to focus on the customer to ensure we first understand their wants and needs, citing Gmail and Google Maps as examples of where in his experience this had been successful. On innovation, he said the best innovation would come from within the industry itself and that we need to ensure we give our people a voice that can be heard at execution level. He added that innovation should happen quickly and that a fear of failure or red tape should not be an excuse for not trying.

Culture: John stressed that when thinking about culture, we shouldn’t look to get rid of our culture, instead we should look to add to it. Phil Whittingham added that the industry is traditionally culturally hesitant and to deliver true reform, the industry would need to become agile and flexible to give passengers what they want.

Panel discussion: Putting rail at the heart of UK transport: strategies for recovery, stability and prosperity

Key points:

Jac Starr, Chief Executive Officer, Rail Delivery Group

Jac began her remarks by saying that when considering recovery, the emphasis for the industry should first be on contributing to the British economy. It should then be focussed around three key areas – a retail revolution around fares, targeted customer marketing and customer reassurance. On innovation, Jac echoed comments made earlier in the event that innovation should be carried out by the people already in the industry and she added that it should be both collaborative and cost-effective, as well as customer focussed. She closed by saying that crucial to the industry’s recovery would be the industry setting out its stall for customers in a way that outlines clear ambitions for our future.

Tricia Williams, Chief Operating Officer, Northern Trains Ltd

Tricia said that Northern were doing well in attracting customers back to the railway – recent recovery for Northern has been led by leisure journeys and last weeks figures had exceeded pre-Covid revenue for the same period two years ago. She stressed this upturn in revenue had not been reflected in the commuter market. On data, Tricia said that 25% of their fleet is now digital and that they were able to track customer behaviour far more effectively as a result of this change.

Suzanne Donnelly, Passenger Revenue Director, GBR Transition Team, Rail Revenue Recovery Group, GBR Transition Team

Suzanne said that revenue recovery was currently a very “varied picture” and that the industry still needed to address the multi-million pound gap. Despite this, she said she had seen a real coming together of the industry as a result of the pandemic in our efforts to attract customers back, in particular during the development of the industry’s marketing campaigns. She added that this collaboration would need to continue to take place as we look market the railway to customers new and old.

David Crawford, Managing Director, Cellnex

David said that in order for the industry to recover we would need to challenge conventional thinking and practice to prove we can deliver for the customer. He said a reset of the public/private would be crucial to this, with connectivity being the main issue from his perspective where we are losing ground to our competitors.

Continue reading