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Centre for Policy Studies webinar: 17 May 2022

“The future of rail post COVID-19”

The discussion – held to mark the release of the CPS’ new report Changing Track – was uncontroversial with the panellists largely in agreement on the key issues. The panel covered the future role of Great British Railways, ticketing reform, sustainability in transport and industrial relations.

Industrial relations featured briefly as an aside and Andy Bagnall said that he was “disappointed” with the threat of strikes and argued there was an inescapable need to “manage the change”. No panellists disagreed with his comments.

As conveyed in previous seminars, Andy said that although the industry was expected to recover, there would undoubtedly be long-term changes to travel patterns that they would have to respond to. He stressed the need to get the GBR legislation right to create a “guiding mind not a controlling mind” and argued that GBR needed to allow TOCs the freedom to respond to demand and utilise their “commercial expertise and creativity”. Stephen Hammond MP was supportive of Andy’s comments but went further to criticise GBR as renationalisation. An overview of the webinar can be found below.

Panel:

  • Andy Bagnall, Director General, Rail Delivery Group
  • Stephen Hammond MP, Conservative (Former Rail Minister)
  • Jo Lewington, Chief Environment & Sustainability Officer, Network Rail
  • Champa Magesh, President, Trainline Partner Solutions
  • Tony Lodge, Chair, CPS Research Fellow

 

Post-Covid Recovery / GBR

Stephen Hammond MP argued that the 5-day commuter market was likely “dead” post-covid, and that the Williams-Shapps proposal risked making GBR a “national joke” that needed to prove itself as a nimble operator that could respond to evolving demand patterns.

  • Hammond later said there needed to be incentives for TOCs to operate in the UK and called GBR a “renationalisation” of the railway that risked “deadening” innovation.
  • Andy Bagnall partially agreed with Hammond, saying that franchising delivered as a system when considering passenger numbers, but that it did need changes. Bagnall said he did want to see a range of contracts and hoped that DfT enabled the right balance of revenue risk transfer and commercial flexibility.

Industrial Relations

  • Jo Lewington said Network Rail were going to avoid strike action “at all costs”. 
  • Andy said he was “disappointed” with the threat of strikes and said he hoped the unions would work with the industry to “manage the change”, especially during rail’s “nascent recovery”. He further stated that the level of Government funding was unsustainable for any industry.

Ticketing

  • Tony Lodge (Chair) praised Trainline for their innovative approach and disagreed with the Government’s ticketing plans saying that GBR should not run the system but instead enable a competitive market of platforms to let people access tickets.
  • Bagnall said he wanted an acceleration in the Government’s rollout of expanded pay-as-you-go and hoped for broader concession models in urban areas.
  • Champa Magesh agreed with Bagnall that there needed to be room for the private sector in the ticketing space to make risky investments and technological advances. She argued that the private sector could market in niche areas not accessible to a monolithic body and effectively change consumers’ habits. Magesh pointed to the diversity of ticket retailers in the airline industry as a successful model that could attract a diversity of retailing offers, including packages with accommodation and parking included.
  • Bagnall said the sheer complexity of the ticketing system put off passengers from buying tickets and that changes required the Government to amend fares regulation.

Environmental

  • Lewington said the industry had to be realistic about the cost of wholesale network electrification, pointing to alternatives like hydrogen. Lewington said Network Rail were engaging the industry not only on battery and hydrogen solutions but other emerging green technologies.
  • Mugesh said that the green credentials of rail were being challenged by EV vehicle and charger rollouts and that they had to make the case for a sustainable railway to the consumer.